ABSTRACT
This chapter presents the negative consolidating factors that have helped maintain the regime’s grip on power. These can take the form of high-intensity coercion through persecution, as well as low-intensity coercion through pre-emption. They can be used to punish the Belarusian opposition or deter any disloyalty in the ruling elites. The chapter provides examples of persecution in the form of disappearances, imprisonment, and violent repression in Belarus. It also demonstrates how the rise of an effective challenge to the regime has been pre-empted during Lukashenka’s presidency. This includes examples of using tools of electoral authoritarianism to ensure that the political playing field is not level for the opposition at parliamentary and presidential elections. Through a managed pluralism, political and social diversity is tolerated within state-sanctioned limits. The chapter also offers evidence of restrictions on freedom of association, assembly, expression, and communication, which have hampered the ability of any opposition to seriously threaten the regime. It shows that the degree of intensity with which these techniques are applied can be calibrated to meet the needs of the authorities at different times in an adaptive manner.
