ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Through the analysis of current safety assessment methods for subway, a new fuzzy dynamic assessment based on mutation is proposed. Fuzzy dynamic safety assessment for subway based on the mutation theory is emphatically studied by decomposing assessment target into multi-stages and doing recursion operation according to some formula to calculate safety general mutating subjection function values for subway. Fuzzy dynamic safety assessment for subway is realized. The importance and quantitative process of each assessing index were determined by the intrinsic mechanism of the normalized formula in catastrophe model, thus the problems of estimating the assessing index weights were avoided and the effect of subjective factors was mitigated. Form the analysis of the equipment, personnel, security management and external environment, a subway security early warning model was set up and implemented. The Exemplified example shows that the results computed by this early warning method were consistent with the actual situation of the subway and this method is reasonable, feasible and stable.
