ABSTRACT
In the classical description of the “demographic transition,” mortality decline precedes fertility decline, thus causing a period of increased population growth until fertility starts to decline as well. This classical portrayal of the demographic transition does not seem to be accurate for many countries. Often, a rise in fertility contributed to population growth in the early stages of the demographic transition, in addition to the contribution of mortality decline (Dyson and Murphy 1985). There are very few case studies of predecline rises in fertility. Usually, fertility studies focus on decline, although “a better appreciation of the changes that trigger such rises may enhance our understanding of the causes and timing of subsequent declines” (Dyson and Murphy 1985).
