chapter  5
13 Pages

A Postscript on the 1964 Election

WithSola Pool Ithiel de

The 1964 election campaign, so different from that of 1960— indeed so different from that of any other in American history— was a challenge. The 1964 campaign was special in many ways. It was record breaking in the size of President Lyndon Johnson’s victory. Viewed from the future it may turn out to be one of those rare elections that realign the political structure of the country. The broad outlines of the 1964 campaign were visible to any perceptive journalist, politician, or political scientist well before Election Day. The job in our 1964 pre-election simulation was to represent these dynamics in sufficient detail and with sufficient rigor to make it possible to calculate how different portions of the American electorate would respond to the campaign on Election Day. Through our simulation and through the deviations from it, the dynamics of the election of 1964 become fairly clear.