ABSTRACT
This chapter addresses the impact of changes in the child welfare system budget-allocation methodology on the Emergency Response (ER) caseload. African-American children are disproportionately involved with the child welfare system. The chapter also addresses the impact of changes in external factors on child abuse or neglect reports, measured by the number of monthly ER dispositions. It presents the results of the forecasting exercises and policy recommendations. A time-series model is developed for ER dispositions between 1985 and 1991. The model is also used to forecast the consequences of external developments for ER caseload. The ER program is responsible for assessing and investigating child abuse reports and for determining the outcome of those reports. The Family Maintenance program is designed to help children remain with their families by providing them with various in-home social work and community services. California's foster care caseload grew substantially between 1985 and 1990, as did caseloads in other parts of the country.
