Conclusion

The 1990s were a tumultuous time in welfare. The beginning of the decade saw the national welfare caseload rise about 35 percent to reach an all-time high of 5.1 million families in March 1994. The decline in welfare caseloads coincided with three major developments: welfare reform, an especially strong economy for low-skilled workers, and massively increased aid to low-income, working families. Given the moral and political implications of blaming—or crediting—welfare reform for the changing condition of the poor, more research on the subject can be expected, even though it is unlikely to be more successful than past efforts. But the desire to conduct such research should not obscure the overriding importance of monitoring the well-being of low-income children and families. The Current Population Survey is likely to remain the primary data set for monitoring conditions after welfare reform, and therefore the Census Bureau should consider several options for improving it.