ABSTRACT
As has been already mentioned in the introduction to this part of the book, Shackle’s theory of expectations presupposes a reduction of multi-outcome prospects to the form of not one but of two outcomes. They are not sure prospects because two different outcomes cannot be both of them sure. They are only of zero degree of potential surprise. The individual is supposed to be not at all surprised if one rather than the other comes off. The adjustment of the individual’s position does not take then the form of choosing a strategy to which corresponds the greatest sure-prospect equivalent of pay-offs. It requires some weighing up of the two outcomes to which the original prospect has been reduced.
