ABSTRACT
Throughout history there have been epidemics, some of which have caused high mortality. These epidemics have almost invariably been caused by viruses, usually influenza, which have mutated, often from other species, to become highly contagious and pathogenic. Over half the known human pathogens have originated in other species (Stein, 2009). Recent epidemics have prompted historical analysis, which suggests semi-predictable patterns to epidemics. It is therefore anticipated that an epidemic is likely to occur soon. During the last decade there have been two anticipated epidemics (‘bird flu’ and the 2009 ‘swine flu’) for which extensive preparations were made. Arguably, preparations exceeded the effects of the diseases, at least in the UK, creating dangers of complacency towards future outbreaks. This chapter reviews the historical evidence, explores what has been learned from recent preparations and outbreaks, and suggests likely implications for future practice.
