ABSTRACT
Although state failure and collapse have been present through out history, they became increasingly salient for the global order in the post-war era. Their importance has continued to increase with the end of the Cold War and the rise of global terrorist networks, as epitomised by Somalia and Afghanistan in the last two decades. The 2002 National Security Strategy of
the United States noted for the first time that weak states posed
as great a danger to the national interest as strong states, and the 2006 Strategy stressed the importance of prevention or resolution of regional conflicts – regardless of cause – that could lead to
state failure, humanitarian crises and creation of safe havens for terrorists, and for intervention and post-conflict stabilisation
and reconstruction to avoid such outcomes.1 This was recognition that failed states pose sufficient direct and severe security threats
to justify a significant commitment of resources toward preventing them. With climate change potentially contributing to regional conflict and state failure, understanding its role can help
choose between policies intended to reduce or avoid such risks. The failure of governance in Sudan long preceded the current
Darfur conflict. It was one reason why the fighting broke out
and was able to spread and continue for so long. Yet the violence in Darfur began just as the long civil war in the south came to a negotiated end, raising hopes for renewed nation-building and development. This raises the question: how representative is the Darfur conflict of how changing climate might interact
with other factors affecting state stability over the next few
decades?
