ABSTRACT
Unipolarity appears to be a very simple system to deal with; there is merely a single superpower to watch, and the picture is not complicated by balancing acts among the great powers. Yet unipolarity comprises contrasting incentives, unique features and has no modern predecessors for us to learn from. The model for dealing with unipolarity was presented in the previous chapters. The point of departure was neorealist theory in its classic version according to Waltz (1979), but a number of changes were suggested based on the unique character of unipolarity. Below, three scenarios for the development of the current unipolar system are presented. These scenarios are not only important for the debate on the durability issue, but also for world politics in a functioning unipolar system. Before presenting the scenarios, however, we comment on some of the expectations related to unipolar mechanisms, as some of them appear to point in different directions. The chapter serving to integrate the different dimensions is organized as follows. First, the contrasting incentives in play are discussed, as is how to balance their influence. Three dilemmas stand out: the first regards the superpower’s incentive to avoid exhaustion by undertaking management, which it must balance against its incentive to avoid under-managing; the second regards the dilemma between the superpower’s incentive to spread its world order and the possible empowerment of other actors produced by the spread; the third regards the unipolar concentration of power in the hands of the superpower versus the diffusion of power to non-state actors in general. Second, the implications of the particular unipolar dynamics are summarized regarding balancing, stability management, structurally induced challenges and the impact of the world order. Third, the three logical and likely scenarios are presented: persistent US hegemony, a classic redistribution of strength and the transformation of the system into a non-anarchically organized system. Fourth and finally, the theoretical perspectives for the study of unipolarity and the development of neorealist theory are discussed together with the future of the world order in terms of security, democracy and cooperation.
