ABSTRACT
The subject of this article is the issue of oil supply security from the point of view of both the oil consuming and the oil producing countries. The conditions prevailing at present in the international oil market would seem to make this topic of oil supply security somewhat outdated, or at least to be of no immediate concern to the oil consumers. Actually, most Western economic forecasters are now predicting a continuous fall in demand for oil in general and for OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil in particular. Therefore, it is not difficult to see why a complacent attitude toward the security of oil supply is gaining currency, particularly in the oil consuming industrial countries. Indeed, it is common knowledge today that demand for oil in the international energy mix has been steadily declining. In consequence, demand for OPEC oil has fallen by 13 million barrels per day (b/d), from a little more than 30 million b/d in 1979 to an average of less than 17 million b/d today (1984). Thus, it would seem that the so-called ‘energy crisis’ as reflected by the two oil shocks (1973-1974 and 1979-1980) is over, especially if the energy problem is defined in terms of scarcity and supply short-fails.
