ABSTRACT
This contribution makes use of Beissinger’s elite learning model to understand the recent course of events in ‘non-revolutionary’ Uzbekistan (2004-8). The chapter argues that ruling elites learn from prior examples of political action as much as their opponents do, allowing them to pre-empt possible challenges to their position. The May 2005 Andijan events were neither a failed colour revolution nor an example of civic activism; moreover, no protests have followed electoral frauds in either the parliamentary or presidential elections in 2004 and 2007 respectively, mostly because control over the outcome was pre-emptive. The chapter locates the Uzbek case within the broader set of colour revolutions in order to examine the impact of the ‘power of example’ on altering political outcomes in the country. We argue that prior experiences of political change in the region and in the former Soviet Union combine with national political configuration to work both in favour and against civic activism, with the incumbents learning how to pre-empt challenges.
