ABSTRACT
Japan is once again in a period of transition, and in accordance with the past, we know that the process of change is both dynamic and continuous.1 As the chapters in this book have shown, there is a certain amount of alternation between rapid and gradual steps including periods of falling back into old patterns before taking new steps forward again. Further, change has been afoot for some time in various ways and at several levels. Notably, the processes of change have not always been obvious for several reasons. One is that change can occur unexpectedly and it can be a process in which immediate results may not be clear. Thus, although change may be taking place, its progress can be uneven, with some areas changing more quickly than others. A second reason that many of the cases in this book have not been obvious is that change in Japan has for the most part taken place in the shadow of other developments such as the rapid economic growth of countries in Asia and the emergence of an economically stronger and much more outward-oriented China than in the past. In this book, we gathered a number of cases in which change is the central theme. Given the variety of disciplines and subject matters included in the book, it is nearly impossible to create a neat, short list of the specific drivers of change. Further, generalizing about the key drivers of change, given the range of responses to change in the cases, is not a productive exercise. Perceptions of change vary considerably, depending on the topic and the aspect of dynamism being analysed. Nonetheless, as discussed in the introduction, we identified four levels of drivers of change – individual, local, regional and global – and noted that pressure for change can come from both outside Japan as well as from the inside. We can blend these two analytical constructs into a four-by-two matrix, shown in Figure 11.1. It encapsulates the interaction among the drivers of change at the four levels and two types of pressure. As we discuss below, all of the spaces in the matrix are not filled by each case. For example, a case might highlight a global level while the analysis focuses on the regional level with local and even individual implications. The matrix offers a useful visual and allows the possibility for each case to occupy several sections. Pressures for change can be generated from both within and outside; at times the two drivers of change interact and result in a process of change that generates responses at various levels. It should be noted that there is not always a clear
delineation between the drivers of change on global, regional, local or individual levels. We do not want to focus on the direction of change, for example using arrows to indicate that change moves from individual to local to regional to global levels. Our focus is on the interaction of the drivers, noting that the processes are a complex web of action and reaction. In this sense it is not possible to identify precisely when a change process began, but it is possible to identify the dynamism in the process of change. Each contributor focused on one case of change that may involve several levels as well as pressure that drives change from inside and/or outside Japan. Inevitably some cases fall more decidedly into certain areas in the matrix than others. We could, for example, have a case indicating pressure from inside and outside combined with regional and local levels with global implications (such as the case of the military-industrial complex by Christopher Hughes), and pressure from the inside affecting the individual, local and regional levels with implications for the global level (such as in the case of the development of political leaders by Verena Blechinger-Talcott). Pressures from outside Japan include the global War against Terrorism and the North Korean nuclear threat, and the two could be combined in the form of pressure for enhanced security cooperation between the United States and Japan as well as increased cooperation in missile defence as described in the stage-setting chapter written by Paul Midford. Case-crossing drivers of change are many as Japanese politics and economics have become increasingly integrated with the rest of the world. Globalization and its effects are driving change in most countries throughout the world, and, while not unique to Japan, technological development, improved communication and access to information are other global, regional and even local drivers of change. The security situation has been changing considerably in recent years and with the increased threat of terrorism on a worldwide basis, it has also driven change. From Japan, we see the response in the form of a much more active nation. On a regional level, the shifting power balance in East Asia with an economically stronger and politically much more outward-oriented China is a driver for change. Another example is the combination of pressure from within Japan and outside Japan that drove the process of upgrading the Self Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense.
John Swenson-Wright raised in his chapter some of the challenges in the security area and singled out key sources of tension on a regional level such as a nuclear North Korea, territorial disputes, competition over access to energy sources and non-traditional security threats including terrorism. These sources of tension are regional drivers of change, and Japan’s perception of them as pressure from outside Japan or as pressure from inside Japan has implications for how Japan responds at various levels. One of the most prominent local drivers of change in Japan is a more vocal public opinion. This is having implications for processes of change in Japanese policy and creating pressure inside Japan for change. Paul Midford discusses this point in his chapter. The LDP-Komei loss of the majority in the Upper House election in 2007 was a clear sign to leaders that the LDP will have to listen to public opinion if they want to stay in power. Other drivers of change on the local level are demographic changes, such as the aging of the population, changing industry structures and growing economic inequalities in the current phase of downturn in the economy. Verena Blechinger-Talcott shows how change in basic structures, such as the election system, has led to a change in what kind of leaders are likely to be elected as well as what kind of issues will be pushed on a global, regional or local level. Here drivers of change come from inside Japan as the pressure mounts to affect change regarding the expectations of what constitutes good political leadership. At the individual level, Junichiro Koizumi is a good example of the fact that leadership matters in processes of change inside Japan. His popularity combined with his political style made a number of changes possible, such as the passing of the Special Anti-Terrorism Measures law and the dispatch of an SDF flotilla to provide fuel and other supplies to US Navy ships operating in the Indian Ocean. On a local level, his core reform agenda targeted the privatization of the postal service, a move that was intrinsically linked to his strategy to revive his party through a forcible shake-up. Even if most observers in hindsight claim that Koizumi failed in achieving his broader objective, to revitalize Japan’s politically and economically, the changes he introduced to LDP decision-making institutions and processes are sustainable and have significantly affected the inner workings of the party. Another driver of change at the individual level is the goal of many Japanese people to learn throughout their lives, according to Akihiro Ogawa. As lifelong learning is promoted through various means and social movements such as the culture volunteers emerge, it becomes possible for people at the grass-roots level to empower themselves and challenge conventional norms and practices where bureaucratic rationality often dominates. The individual that participates in various NGOs that, for example, work with Japanese foreign aid are also driving process of change in the way Japanese ODA is handled (chapters by Marie Söderberg and Norbert Palanovics). We can further deepen our discussion of drivers of change by adding a framework of ‘adaptation’ and ‘emergence’. We note two broad patterns of change: adaptation of old patterns to new circumstances and emergence of new patterns in response to new needs. In the context of the matrix in Figure 11.1, this means that
