ABSTRACT
People often behave in ways that are inconsistent with what they know to be true. For instance, consumers purchase Advil at twice the price of generic anti-inflammatories, even though both contain 100% ibuprofen. People will pay more to participate in a lottery that has 10 winning tickets and 90 losing tickets, over one that has 1 winning ticket and 9 losing tickets-even though they realize that both lotteries have equal probabilities of success (Kirkpatrick & Epstein, 1992). In other instances, people privately cling to beliefs that they acknowledge are refuted by the evidence. For example, even though probability theory has shown that the “hot hand” in basketball is a myth (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985), people who know better still wait for their favorite team’s best shooter to get into a groove. Even though most psychologists know that holistic assessment is beyond human cognitive capabilities, they continue to hire their colleagues this way.
