ABSTRACT
This chapter explores how a movement outcome, especially an unintended outcome, is embedded within the movement's development. It applies four principles, Bayes' rule, mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, a comparative static approach, and elasticity as a general term for a rate of change, to the study of movement development. The mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in the repeated two-level game is a final coherent state of balance. The new concept, the tradeoff between short-term payoffs and long-term interests for the movement, represents the transition from the movement's and the state's interdependent actions to their systemic consequences. More specifically, in 1989 China, movement participants in the repeated game enjoyed and celebrated short-term gains, such as honor and the legitimization of civil organizations, and then suffered long-term loss when the movement was suppressed by military force. The concept of a tradeoff between a social movement's short-term payoffs and long-term interests is new, and sheds light on the unintended outcomes of social movements.
