ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses when and under what conditions a state is likely to become the most determined proliferator. It builds a relationship between intractable conflicts and proliferation imperatives of states. It demonstrates that while the anarchic system influences proliferation propensities of states, not all states in general and conflicting states in particular are proliferation-prone. The influence of anarchy is dominant in proliferation decisions when states are engaged in certain types of conflicts. The chapter highlights that variables such as conflict types – protracted/non-protracted, territorial/non-territorial, dyadic/non-dyadic, proximate/ non-proximate, and asymmetric/symmetric – number of conflict engagements, the regional or global status of the rival state, the nuclear and non-nuclear status of the opponent, and the relationship between different rival states shape or determine proliferation decisions. Thus, proliferation is not necessarily a direct function of being engaged in conflicts; there is more to it. This means that although conflict engagement is a necessary condition of proliferation, it is not sufficient to generate proliferation proclivity on its own. Additionally, among the proliferation-prone states, some are most determined to proliferate, meaning reversing the aspirations of such states is difficult, if not impossible. The reasons are primarily the aggregate effects of the variables/causal factors discussed earlier on proliferation. Given this, non-nuclear status of a state is essentially a product of non-existence of certain types of long-running conflicts. The principal objective of this chapter is to underscore the value of conflict resolution, especially where the above conditions are present, for attaining non-proliferation objectives. While it is true that nuclear proliferation is not unidirectional, for a state to give up its nuclear weapons aspiration, right conditions and incentives must be present in the offing. In order to know what conditions must be present, the conditions and factors that trigger proliferation incentives need to be presented and analyzed first.
