chapter  4
31 Pages

Scenarios of climate change and conflict

Climate change that induces conflict in the twenty-first century may turn out to be quite dangerous or quite benign. The profile can easily change, depending on the actions of people. It may be that people make good choices and minimize the dangers of conflict. It is nonetheless prudent, and indeed necessary, to prepare for a more dangerous world. This section crystallizes the cases, lessons, and trends into six future scenarios. These scenarios epitomize past conflicts and speculate on future ones, particularly the structural conditions that may reveal areas for potential conflict.