ABSTRACT
When do peace negotiations proceed despite of, and indeed because of, political violence, and under what conditions does international mediation contribute to progress? Progress in the peace processes of the 1990s and 2000s occurs as a consequence of choices by the protagonists – especially key political elites – in conflict when they are motivated by the enlightened awareness of the dire need to avoid a worse outcome: the further escalation of violence. Avoidance of further escalation by elites is central but only one of the factors that explains progress toward peace: these elites must also be able to envision a settlement that, if not mutually beneficial, contains sufficient personal and human security and rights guarantees, and they must be able to see a pathway – a peace process – to achieve a settlement and to prevent subsequent defection (cheating) in the period of implementation.
