ABSTRACT
Where is NATO going? Such a question pre-supposes from whence NATO came, where it stands today, where the security environment drives it and the member nations agree it should go. There is one simple maxim that can guide the security futurologist: NATO was founded to deal with high politics and big security. It was always thus and given the centrality of American involvement it is always likely to be so. However, the caveat that hangs over NATO concerns the relationship between American grand strategy and the leadership it implies and the extent to which the European Allies agree or not with the objectives, method and conduct of such strategy. Thus, the question that today fixates Europeans and North Americans is whether the change that is ever more apparent in the world will lead to a re-constitution of the strategic mission for which the Alliance was created. The recent behaviour of Russia and the emergence of China suggest that the need for NATO will be greater than for any alternative focus for the grand strategic military-security effort of the partners in the twenty-first century.
