ABSTRACT
Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, was known to remark, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Indeed, the business of forecasting future developments—known as futurism—is far from an exact science. Forecasting through extrapolation of historical trends, or through building of formal models based on mathematical equations, is essentially arbitrary, because most of the relevant data are lacking. Moreover, as cognitively active decision makers, we have some control over our destiny, and forecasting passive continuation of current trends seems to underestimate the powerful impact of human agency and imagination. At best, one can illustrate a few possible future scenarios, each using one or another set of assumptions (Rice, 1997). Such forecasts themselves may become a basis for reflection and alteration of current trends, based upon the application of human imagination and agency.
