ABSTRACT
Understanding why our fear of terrorism remains so high, despite statistical probabilities, is largely a product of characteristics we assign to different risks and threats (probability neglect), the certainty of terrorist intentions, and uncertainty of terrorist capabilities. These perceptions guarantee that most of us will greatly overestimate the probability of terrorism, overestimate the potential consequences of an attack, and overvalue the losses if and when an attack occurs. When combined with higher expectations of a return in security and the overpowering influence of failure, these pressures explain the fourth component of the homeland security dilemma – officials in Washington face their own sets of fears and related motivations to prevent any and all failures, and to find and fill gaps in security.
