ABSTRACT

In this chapter, we reconsider the simple empirical evidence for the existence of a long-phased cycle in the state variables e and v, the employment rate and the wage share, that we have collected in Flaschel and Groh (1995) for a number of industrialized market economies. We do this on the basis of fifteen years of further observations and to a certain degree now also with quite modern econometric techniques. Our findings will be that — in the case of the US economy — the only 3/4 closed long-phase loops we observed in this earlier paper can now be confirmed as by and large closed, giving in sum an approximately 50-year-long cycle in employment and the wage share that was interacting with six to seven business cycles observed in the US economy between 1960 and 2006.