ABSTRACT
On the basis of this partial historical analogy, and related analysis of layers of agency, structures and mechanisms, I have constructed three scenarios of possible global futures, with a number of variations of each. The construction of these scenarios is based on systematic scientific analysis of various possible causal sequences of events, episodes and processes produced by actors, understood as embodied and collective self-organised systems, themselves producing effects in open and complex systems. Scenarios are not predictions. Any social system is in some ways vague, ambiguous and liable to ruptures and transformations. Scenarios often lose their basis when the world changes. Moreover, apart from being scientific and based on explanatory models, scenario construction should also be seen as a self-reflective exercise in cultural studies, moral philosophy and creative ability (in the same way that both research and development and the arts are creative).
