ABSTRACT
This chapter offers a theory that explains how military strategies render power shifts more or less dangerous. I first describe the key characteristics of maneuver and attrition strategies and then show how these shape the three conditions conducive to preventive war. These analyses combine to produce a couple of original hypotheses that predict when power shifts are war-prone:
1 if the declining state has a maneuver strategy, then power shifts will result in war
2 if the state has an attrition strategy, then power shifts will pass without war.
I then extend the scope of my theory to cover coalition, nuclear, naval, and air warfare by classifying relevant strategies. The final section explores sources of military strategy, critiquing widely accepted conventional wisdoms and presenting a novel argument centered on the qualities of military leadership.
