ABSTRACT
Many thoughtful observers have wondered why it is so often so difficult to reach consensus on the correct policy lessons to be drawn from history (Jervis 1976; Neustadt and May 1986; Vertzberger 1991). This chapter argues that the answer is part ontological (wired into the quirky path-dependent structure of the world we inhabit) and part psychological (wired into the operating routines and structures of the human mind). This chapter also reports a series of empirical studies that illustrate how easily historical reasoning can slip into ideologically self-serving tautology and how difficult it can be to avoid becoming prisoners of our preconceptions.
