ABSTRACT
This chapter presents an analytic procedure for aiding policy analysts in analyzing past decisions made by terrorist groups as well as predicting future decisions. First, we define and operationalize suicide attacks. Then, we describe the procedure-Applied Decision Analysis-generally as a framework for developing descriptive (and predictive) decision profiles of terrorists on the basis of a decision model or a set of processing characteristics. Next, we discuss a decision model-the Poliheuristic Theory-which we argue is a useful tool for forecasting and analyzing decisions. Then, we illustrate the Applied Decision Analysis procedure with two case studies. The first examines al-Qaeda’s decision to carry out a suicide attack on the USS Cole. The second case study concerns Osama bin Laden’s decision to merge his al-Qaeda organization with the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. We conclude by assessing the usefulness of the Applied Decision Analysis procedure for explaining and predicting terrorists decisions.
