ABSTRACT
In this chapter the development of the methods used in econometric forecasting are reviewed. First, the traditional approach is explained and some of the problems it poses are discussed. In Section 33.3 the various statistical methods of forecasting are reviewed and their links with economic modelling are considered. The different ways in which the accuracy of forecasts can be assessed are presented in Section 33.4, while the benefits from combining forecasts are the subject of Section 33.5. Conclusions are given in Section 33.6. Since Fildes (1988) gives a comprehensive summary of the organizations producing economic forecasts and conducting business surveys we do not consider these further here.
