ABSTRACT

The structure of the model and its operating logic are based on two key concepts established by H.A.Simon: the concept of the hierarchical system to describe the structure of a complex artificial system2 and the concept of a procedural rather than substantive rationality to describe the behaviour of the economic players in a risky and unstable situation.3 It is thus a recursive simulation model, in which energy prices at time (t),

along with the exogenous variables (population, growth, etc.), determine supply and demand at time t+1, including adjustments for time lags or delays.