ABSTRACT
Will the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) be a success? Of course it will. This forecast of success taken by itself is completely uninteresting. For one thing, success may be interpreted to the public, or to oneself, as an agreement on some document. Since what is contained in a document may be positively harmful, this definition of success can hardly be accepted. For another thing, the forecast, if successful, could have been a oneoff, lucky shot. The method of arriving at the forecast needs to be understandable and criticizable.
