ABSTRACT
Unfortunately, policy uncertainty remains an underdeveloped concept in CNN effect research. For example Minear et al. (1997: 73) refer to news media impact when ‘policy-making is weak or cynical’ whilst Gowing (1996: 86) refers to policy uncertainty in terms of ‘moments of policy panic’. Alternatively, Shaw’s use of the term is far more general, noting that the whole post-Cold War era is characterised by uncertainty over foreign policy. In terms of providing evidence of policy uncertainty, the researchers considered either tend to rely on their own considered opinion of levels of policy certainty or to refer to anecdotal evidence provided by policy-makers. This failure to define and operationalise policy uncertainty has meant that its utility, in terms of assessing news media power, is limited. For example, Gowing (1996: 86) understands policy uncertainty (or policy panic) as occurring when the news media covers unexpected events and politicians literally do not know how to respond. It seems likely that this narrow definition leads him (1996: 86) to argue that news media impact is rare. Alternatively, Shaw (1996: 181) notes that the whole post-Cold War era is characterised by uncertainty regarding the foreign policies of Western governments. Understanding policy uncertainty in these broad terms allows Shaw to argue that news media impact is far more profound. Without defining, conceptualising and then specifying the observable implications of policy uncertainty, it is difficult even to start to determine levels of policy certainty and, therefore, the scope of news media influence on policy. This study intends to rectify this nebulous state of affairs with regard to our understanding of policy uncertainty.
