ABSTRACT

This book goes beyond other police leadership books to teach practitioners how to think about policing in a structured way that synthesizes criminological theory, statistics, research design, applied research, and what works and what doesn’t in policing into Mental Models. A Mental Model is a representation of how something works. Using a Mental Model framework to simplify complex concepts, readers will take away an in-depth understanding of how cognitive biases affect our ability to understand and interpret data,  what empirical research says about effective police interventions, how statistical data should be structured for management meetings, and how to evaluate interventions for efficiency and effectiveness. 

While evidence-based practice is critical to advancing the police profession, it is limited in scope, and is only part of what is necessary to support sustainable change in policing. Policing requires a scientifically based framework to understand and interpret data in a way that minimizes cognitive bias to allow for better responses to complex problems. Data and research have advanced so rapidly in the last several decades that it is difficult for even the most ambitious of police leaders to keep pace. The Twenty-one Mental Models were synthesized to create a framework for any police, public, or community leader to better understand how cognitive bias contributes to misunderstanding data and gives the reader the tools to overcome those biases to better serve their communities.

The book is intended for a wide range of audiences, including law enforcement and community leaders; scholars and policy experts who specialize in policing; students of criminal justice, organizations, and management; reporters and journalists; individuals who aspire to police careers; and citizen consumers of information about policing. Anyone who is going to make decisions about their communities based on data has a responsibility to be numerate and this book Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing: A Framework For Using Data and Research For Overcoming Cognitive Bias, will help you become just that.

chapter |6 pages

Introduction

What is a Mental Model and How Does It Help Policing

part I|26 pages

How We Think

chapter 8Mental Model #1|6 pages

System 1 and System 2

chapter Mental Model #2|8 pages

Cognitive Biases

chapter Mental Model #3|7 pages

First Principles Thinking

chapter |3 pages

The Mental Models in Practice I—Mental Models 1–3

System 1 and System 2, Cognitive Biases, and First Principles Thinking

part II|24 pages

How We Think About Math

chapter 34Mental Model #4|6 pages

False Linear Thinking

chapter Mental Model #5|7 pages

Binary Percent Changes

chapter Mental Model #6|7 pages

Second Order Thinking

chapter |2 pages

The Mental Models in Practice II—Mental Models 4–6

False Linear Thinking, Binary Percent Changes, and Second Order Thinking

part III|22 pages

How Things Concentrate

chapter 58Mental Model #7|5 pages

The Pareto Principle

chapter Mental Model #8|9 pages

The Law of Crime Concentration

chapter Mental Model #9|4 pages

The Felonious Few

chapter |2 pages

The Mental Models in Practice III—Mental Models 7–9

The Pareto Principle, The Law of Crime Concentration, and The Felonious Few

part IV|20 pages

How Things Vary

chapter 80Mental Model #10|7 pages

Distributions

chapter Mental Model #11|5 pages

Law of Large Numbers

chapter Mental Model #12|5 pages

Regression to the Mean

chapter |1 pages

The Mental Models in Practice IV—Mental Models 10–12

Distributions, Law of Large Numbers, and Regression to the Mean

part V|24 pages

How to Determine Causality

chapter 100Mental Model #13|6 pages

Correlation is Not Causation

chapter Mental Model #14|7 pages

Causal Inference

chapter Mental Model #15|8 pages

Bayesian (Probabilistic) Reasoning

chapter |1 pages

The Mental Models in Practice V—Mental Models 13–15

Correlation is Not Causation, Causal Inference, and Bayesian Reasoning

part VI|30 pages

How to Think Scientifically

chapter 124Mental Model #16|8 pages

Peer Review Your Perspectives

chapter Mental Model #17|7 pages

The Scientific Method

chapter Mental Model #18|11 pages

Evidence-based Practice

chapter |2 pages

The Mental Models in Practice VI—Mental Models 16–18

Peer Review Your Perspectives, The Scientific Method, and Evidence-based Practices

part VII|26 pages

How to Make Decisions

chapter 154Mental Model #19|7 pages

Targeting, Testing, and Tracking

chapter Mental Model #20|9 pages

Harm Indexes

chapter Mental Model #21|7 pages

Decision-making Models

chapter |1 pages

The Mental Models in Practice VII—Mental Models 19–21

Triple T—Targeting, Testing, and Tracking, Harm Indexes, and Decision-making Models

part VIII|10 pages

How to Apply It All

chapter |4 pages

Conclusion

181How the Twenty-one Mental Models Can Improve Policing and Reduce Cognitive Bias