ABSTRACT

Of all fluctuations in economic activity, the long wave or Kondratieff cycle is easily the most puzzling and least understood one. Does it really exist, and if so, is it only a cycle in prices or a cycle in economic activity at large? What causes it, and has it been confined to Europe or does it affect the world economy as a whole?

These questions, which seemed of little relevance in the prosperous years of the postwar growth era, have gained new importance since 1973. With the downturn of the long wave, interest in it has enjoyed a revival, as it did in the 1930s. A great number of publications on the long wave have appeared since 1973, many of which have added to our insight of what causes the recurrent alternations of growth acceleration and retardation. This book is the first in the English language in which all important long wave theories, old as well as recent, are brought together. It focuses on the long wave as an international phenomenon, affecting all industrialised countries. It contains new theory as well as empirical evidence and in the final section suggests a number of policy recommendations to generate innovation.

This book offers an interpretation of long-term economic development different from those commonly found in the literature. It will be of interest to students and scholars of the economics of growth and change, as well as to economic historians and policy-makers. This book was first published in 1983.

chapter I|56 pages

Cycles And Trends

chapter 1|17 pages

Cyclical Fluctuations

chapter 2|25 pages

Growth as an S-Shaped Phenomenon

chapter 3|12 pages

Secular Trends

part II|88 pages

Long Wave Theories

chapter 4|14 pages

The Discovery Of The Long Wave

chapter 5|20 pages

The Kondratieff as a Price Cycle

chapter 6|19 pages

Innovation Theories

chapter 7|17 pages

Fluctuations In Infrastructural Investment

chapter III|48 pages

Empirical Evidence

chapter 9|26 pages

Long Waves in Production

chapter 10|20 pages

Fluctuations In Innovations

part IV|33 pages

The Fourth Kondratieff Downswing

chapter 11|16 pages

The Stagnation of the 1970S

chapter 12|15 pages

Economic Policy During A Depression