ABSTRACT
The production of maize, wheat and rice combined will need to increase by 60-70% by 2050 to meet this growing demand (Cairns et al. 2013; Godfray et al. 2010; Ignaciuk and Mason-D’Croz 2014; Watson 2017). In line with shifting diets towards increased animal protein and milk consumption, global meat production is expected to increase by more than 58 million metric tonnes (MMT) during the next decade. Poultry continues to dominate the meat sector, as reflected in production growth of 27% by 2023 relative to 2014. This represents almost half of the additional meat that will be produced globally by 2023 (OECD-FAO 2014). It is suggested that, over the next decade, 75% of additional agricultural output will be produced in developing regions (OECD-FAO 2014). Much of this demand is linked to the increased production of pork and poultry, which relies on the use of maize feed (OECD-FAO 2014). Indeed, Timsina et al. (2011) suggest that, by 2020, demand for maize in Asia may increase by as much as 87% due to increased demand for animal, especially poultry, feed. Demand for wheat is expected to increase between 34% and 60% by 2050 (Valin et al. 2014), mostly linked to projected increased consumption in developing countries. Global demand for rice is expected to increase from 479 million tons of
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milled rice in 2014 to 536-551 million tons in 2030 (RICE 2016). Today, 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66% by 2050. Projections show that urbanisation combined with the overall growth of the world’s population could add another 2.5 billion people to urban populations by 2050, with close to 90% of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa; especially India, China and Nigeria (FAO 2017).
