ABSTRACT
It is not surprising in a world increasingly in disarray that the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would remain unaffected. And, indeed, the NPT is being buffeted by the winds of change that blow in at least two different directions. On one front is the northerly-directed gust of disenchantment over the slow pace of nuclear disarmament, most evident among critics of the nuclear weapon states and their allies, and trumpeted by proponents of the new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Another front is an equally powerful current of discontent fueled by the perception that the international security environment today is inhospitable for disarmament, requires nuclear deterrence in order to preserve strategic stability, and sees little prospect for a shift in these underlying conditions in the near-to-mid-term. This chapter attempts to forecast how these conflicting tendencies are apt to evolve, what their short- and longer-term impacts will be on the integrity of the NPT, and whether or not what has long been the cornerstone of the nonproliferation regime can—or should—persevere.
