ABSTRACT
This chapter begins with projections of China’s grain production. As the population is increasing and arable land shrinking in China, there is increasing interest in whether and how the country can continue to feed itself into the next millennium. China’s grain security and its potential impacts on the world grain market in the future have been the focus of considerable attention among scholars both inside and outside China. Future total grain output is estimated by forecasting grain sown acreage and yield separately. The historical analysis of China’s grain supply disaggregated supply response into acreage and yield components. Grain sown acreage is a function of a policy variable, the level of subsistence farming, the prices of grain products and oil crops; and yield is determined by the price of agricultural inputs, the price of grain products, technological progress, institutional changes and weather conditions.
