Introduction

This introduction presents an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book explores the scientific basis of risk assessments and quantitative risk assessments. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports refer to risk as the “potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values”. The World Economic Forum is the predominant study on global risk characterization. The book is based on a dichotomy between two modes of thought: System 1, which operates automatically and quickly, instinctively and emotionally, and System 2, which is slower, more logical and deliberative. It identifies cognitive biases associated with each type of thinking, using several decades of academic research on the issue, to a large extent linked to Daniel Kahneman’s own research. The panel seems to have developed its approach from scratch without really consulting the scientific community and literature on risk analysis.