ABSTRACT
This chapter compiles all evidence and constructs the storyline through explaining-outcome process-tracing methodology. The main argument tested is the influence of mainstream parties’ strategies on the vote share of ethno-territorial party, which depends on their ability to attract the ethnic median voter. First, it is hypothesized that the AKP took a position on the ethnic dimension with vote- and policy-seeking motives, which was tested and failed to reject on the basis of pattern (election results) and account evidence (parliamentary group speeches). Second, it is hypothesized that the AKP aimed to attract both the Turkish and Kurdish median voter. The quantitative text analysis revealed that the AKP focused on the former, while qualitative text analysis implied the latter. It was examined whether parties on the ethnic dimension reinforce their positions according to mainstream parties’ behavior. Concurrent with the predicted evidence, the Turkish nationalists and the Kurdish party took an adversarial position toward the AKP-initiated Kurdish opening process, but for different reasons. Last, it is hypothesized that while the Turkish median voter responded to the AKP’s strategy, the Kurdish median voter responded to the Kurdish party. This happened for numerous contextual reasons, including time lag and the KCK trials.
