ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses the generating of alternative economic projections for 1997, and hence industrial projections. The basic approach used was exploratory forecasting - i.e. leading from the present situation along probable lines of development. Normative forecasting starts at some desired or possible state in the future in order to derive present day consequences and possible remedial actions. The exploratory forecasting used involved several techniques, alone or in combination, both "objective" and subjective or intuitive. Great efforts were made to ensure that within the constraints of a particular scenario the most objective, probable and logically consistent projections were generated. Often different official data sources yield contradictory results and great efforts were made to reconcile these with present and past data and different projections.