ABSTRACT
The December 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan forced many to revise previous estimates of Soviet intentions in the Persian Gulf region. Although Moscow was initially reluctant to criticize publicly the Khomeini government in Iran, recent Soviet statements suggest growing dissatisfaction with the Shiite regime. Soviet intervention forces for the Persian Gulf/Southwest Asian area would be drawn from the southern theater, one of the five major Soviet strategic regions. The southern theater includes the north Caucasus, Transcaucasus, and Turkestan military districts in addition to Afghanistan. Agreements have been signed between the United States and regional states to preposition matériel and to utilize certain facilities in time of crisis. There are many difficulties with developing the capability to intervene militarily in Southwest Asia. The greatest uncertainty is the United States' willingness to divert forces from Europe to Southwest Asia, particularly during a period when a crisis in the gulf may be accompanied by tensions in Europe.
