ABSTRACT

In the "Seven Dwarfs" scenario, explored presidential nomination contests in which the winner is chosen after the primary season begins. In this scenario, no candidate so dominates the preprimary phase that he completely overwhelms the rest of the pack. Instead, one candidate emerges after demonstrating his ability to win primaries among his base voters and perform well nationwide. The 1976 Republican presidential nomination contest had been a real nail-biter. The convention opened with neither President Gerald Ford nor former California Governor Ronald Reagan having secured enough delegate commitments to guarantee a first-ballot victory. Ford swayed enough delegates to win the nomination narrowly, but he lost the general election to Jimmy Carter. After Jimmy Carter lost his reelection bid to Ronald Reagan in 1980, the liberal wing stood ready to recapture its dominant position in the Democratic Party. Two men were the logical choices to be the instant frontrunner for the nomination for the 1984 cycle.