ABSTRACT
A major strategic risk that will be created if the Israel Defense Forces leaves the Golan Heights is the loss to Israel of early-warning information about an impending attack. This chapter considers intelligence evaluation and early warning at the national level. It aims to distinguish three modes: current situation assessment; assessment of new enemy capabilities in view of changes in the current picture; evaluation of the enemy's intentions. Evaluation of an armed forces' capacity relies chiefly on the current situation assessment, including changes in order of battle, weapons systems, deployment, training, level of commanding officers, and so on. A major, perhaps crucial source for obtaining early warning lies in technological intelligence and observation using optical and electro-optic instruments. Another element is ground-based observation radar, including long-range radar, which can locate and identify movement by armored vehicles, other vehicles and personnel. Visual observation posts based on the eastern Golan mounds are an essential element.
