ABSTRACT
An Israeli-Syrian settlement will require a lengthy transition period, though it is still too early to estimate its exact duration. To reduce the probability of a Syrian attack, and to allow Israel to defend itself effectively and with minimal casualties in a possible future war, three elements are required. The first is a basic change in Syria's political stand toward Israel, entailing acceptance of its existence and readiness to resolve the Arab-Israel conflict. Secondly, progress must be made toward a resolution of the Palestinian problem, involving the rehabilitation and integration of the 1948 refugees in Arab states and the elimination of the refugee camps. Third, the nature of security arrangements on the Golan and to its east and west, should make Syria consider seriously before attacking. Indeed, they should induce it to avoid that course, while at the same time enabling Israel to withstand such an attack if it does occur.
