ABSTRACT

Crisis stability can be viewed as a subset of deterrence stability and arises from a country's reliance on deterrence to prevent attacks on itself and on other valued assets. A strategic nuclear force that has a substantial degree of stability under normal conditions can be adversely affected by a crisis. In summary, crisis stability can be affected by changing the state of weapons systems, by previously unforeseen consequences of forces or plans, or by changes in the perceptions and thinking of policy-makers. In considerations of crisis stability it is important to review recent and emerging developments and practices of both the Soviet Union and the United States—many of them quite familiar—that affect the context in which any future crisis involving them would occur. The existence of a substantial antisatellite capability would be perceived as reducing stability in a crisis regardless of whether such weapons were used.