ABSTRACT
This chapter reviews the prospects for the 1995 situation and the longer-term outlook toward the year 2000. It considers first the outlook for global food demand; second the supply situation, and third policy considerations—all several of which are necessary for an overall picture of the agricultural economy in 1995–2000. Policy issues involve both international issues, notably agriculture in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and national policies. The significant deterioration in demand from the Former Soviet Union is partially offset by the Common Agricultural Policy reforms of the European Economic Community. The main demand-side uncertainty that is relevant to 1995 US food and agricultural legislation is the potential for demand weakness in the 1993/94 and 1994/95 marketing years. The US policy baseline assumed in our projections extends the provisions of the Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990. Import demand for agricultural products by developing countries is the quantitatively dominant source of uncertainty.
