ABSTRACT
This chapter begins by showing that current methodologies used to assess the balance contain high levels of uncertainty and therefore make it difficult to evaluate with confidence the military significance of even substantial changes in force levels and structure. It examines systematically the implications of such uncertainty for deterrence and conventional arms control. The ultimate objective of conventional arms control is to reduce force levels in the central front region to the minimum necessary to fulfill surveillance and patrol missions. The uncertainty inherent in the assessment process is reflected in the wide disparities that have characterized competing views of the military balance. There is general agreement among analysts that it is virtually meaningless to assess relative military capabilities on the basis of simple numerical comparisons of manpower and weaponry. The most sophisticated approach to designing theater-level strategy and setting appropriate military requirements involves the use of dynamic models to simulate combat.
