ABSTRACT
This chapter provides a Bayesian perspective for social impact assessments (SIA) in Third World settings. It argues that the logic of Bayesian statistics is the appropriate logic for SIA's of development projects. The chapter focuses on basic Bayesian statistics simply to identify its logic. The importance of the Bayesian principle for purposes is that it provides a useful methodology for decision making under conditions of limited information. It combines two approaches: the use of past experience to guide decisions and the collection of new information on the decision situation. The Bayesian approach uses the probabilistic or uncertain nature of knowledge as a rationale for a decision making methodology that seeks to assess the probabilities of the various possible outcomes as accurately as is reasonably possible given the time, money and information constraints. The Bayesian approach demands that some new information be collected on the situation.
