ABSTRACT
In 1980, Anthony M. Tang made projections of China's grain production and consumption for the 1977-2000 periods. Tang found that an increase of 2.3 percent per year in factor productivity was necessary to fulfill the output target set by the 1976-1985 ten-year plan, which he regarded as unattainable. However, having considered the new policy initiated in 1979, Tang reasoned that the 0.65 percent annual decline in factor productivity might be too low to make projections for the remainder of the century. There are some other approaches which have been used to make projections of grain production. The regional data on grain production in China is far from adequate, but at least the official figures on provincial production since 1979 are available. The chapter discusses the policy impact on grain production explicitly by taking policy instruments as major variables in modelling national grain production. The price instruments have certainly influenced the determination of the grain sown area since 1979.
