ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses the whole Chinese population will be divided into two broad groups—urban and rural residents. It argues that a good model should decompose the major components of total grain consumption and explain their variation over time with economic variables such as population and income. In modelling China's grain consumption, Anthony M. Tang and Bruce Stone used the method of moving averages. A more precise projection should be able to distinguish the growth rates of various components of total grain consumption and to explain them with other economic variables. Shengming Yang then assumed the growth rates of national income and population, the capital accumulation share in total national income and the share of collective consumption. In China, the direct consumption of food grain is the most important source of nutrition intake and energy, and by far the largest component of grain utilization.