ABSTRACT
Any attempt to measure the likely economic implications of restraints on prospective arms sales fundamentally must come to grips with forecasting the likely demand for particular equipment. Numerous uncertainties preclude a straightforward estimation of likely demand and, because of these uncertainties; there is no single, widely agreed method for doing so with any confidence. The inventory replacement approach estimates prospective national demand for particular items principally based upon the existing equipment inventory and the likely time at which these items will become obsolete. In contrast to the inventory replacement approach, the multivariate analysis of prospective demand takes into account more than the size and age of a potential recipient's equipment inventory. Available Defense Security Assistance Agency data provides the dollar value on a year-by-year basis for equipment purchases by the Middle East states which in turn can be used to portray past acquisition trends.
