ABSTRACT
This chapter attempts to fill the existing void with respect to measuring the economic implications of restraint in arms sales, specifically focusing upon prospective US sales of selected equipment to the Middle East. It shows that the uncertain durability and scope of potential US restraint and accordingly treats possible restraint as varying in both geographic and equipment terms. The different conditions of restraint examined in preceding pages are admittedly arbitrary and drawn for analytic convenience. Income and employment impacts, both direct and indirect, were assessed based upon algorithms that reflect both empirical data and prior research. In estimating the costs to the US economy of restrictions in meeting potential Middle East demand for advanced weaponry, every effort has been made to acknowledge and take into account serious uncertainties and in so doing to err on the conservative side and avoid any dramatic overstatement of economic impacts.
